TAV: THE TRUTH OF THE FACTS ON THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORTATION ON RUBBER AND RAIL
In recent days there has been so much talk, but will continue to talk about it, of the notorious TAV Turin-Lyon, according to which a cost-benefit analysis commissioned by the Italian government to a commission of experts, would result in an inconvenient investment, which could make it rise the costs of ten billion over the course of thirty years. But what is true and what must be refuted to avoid being a government or a partisan of the opposition? As always we will try to get the numbers to talk, because they are the ones that matter and not the bar chat that only serves to make time pass to those who make them.
First of all, there is talk of high speed Turin-Lyon since 1991, the year in which the project was at the center of a heated debate between those who believe the work, a necessary opportunity for the development of the country and those who, instead, consider it useless for the huge costs. In reality the works for the TAV have already started at least 10 years and the project, therefore, is in a very advanced state for the creation of a mixed line with specific interoperability techniques, allowing the passage of passenger trains at a speed maximum of about 220 km and freight trains at a maximum speed of about 120 km / h. The benefit to be obtained is a strong reduction in travel times when the current Turin-Modane line only reaches the maximum speed of 120-140 km / h for passengers. The proposed work is however competitive and more convenient than road transport with a significant reduction in harmful emissions from the trucks in circulation; instead those who criticize the work say that the rail traffic of goods does not necessarily need high speeds, but greater transport capacity, ie longer trains, over 750 meters, and weighing at least 2 tons.
Avoiding being ideological in the debate, let´s talk about the numbers: from the last report that was commissioned by the government and drafted by a group of experts, we can see that the highest cost is around 8 billion euros, while the lowest goes down up to 5 billion. These costs are estimated for the first thirty years of activity of the line when in 2059 the work should be completed.
The thing that surprises most when reading this report, however, is that among the items of cost there would be the State´s lack of profit from the excise taxes deriving from the missing tolls and on fuels, because there would be less trucks that would travel and therefore less fuel spent , less tolls and less revenue from the related taxes. All this, on the contrary, should be a benefit, not a cost. The damage suffered by the motorway concessionaires criticized by the 5 Star Movement after the collapse of the Ponte Morandi in Genoa should not even be included in the analysis.
Furthermore, road transport at national level would not be damaged, because already 86% of the trucks that travel, carry out transports only in the national territory and in 40% of the cases also travel empty, just as savings should be included among the benefits produced by the lowest number of road accidents, which unfortunately too often bleed those roads that lead to France, and the reduction of pollution, a subject so dear to the 5 Star Movement.
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